ELECTIONS: WNNERS AND LOSERS PROJECTED BY PROF. DELE OLASIJI, USA
On February 13, 1999, I wrote an article titled “Why It should be Obasanjo”, published in TTHISDAY. And came the election day, Nigerians rightly chose Chief Olusegun Obasanjo over Chief Oluyemisi Falae. Though Nigeria’s socio-political environ today is entirely different from that of 1999, Nigerians making right choice in 1999 was as dire then as it is at the present. As then a Professor of Conflict Resolution and Human Relations at the University of Oklahoma, and being an observer abroad of the unfolding issues in Nigeria, I gave my two cents in February 1999, by critically assessing the choices before Nigerian voters in February 1999. Having, for months, read the Nigerian newspapers online on a daily basis, as I did in 1999, I have keenly trailed some of Nigeria’s 18 presidential candidates, not all of course. I have hence chosen to assess only the 4 major ones, because most of others are not worth the intellectual engagement of one’s energy. For an unfathomable or strange reason, 18 Nigerians decided to contest for the presidential race, some apparently for being later known as former presidential candidate, for others, it is like wanting to play a “spoiler role”, as did in 1992 by American billionaire, Ross Perot, who was the presidential candidate of a little-known Reform Party, only to just cause the incumbent President GH Bush the loss to Bill Clinton. That is democracy for you.
For the love of a united Nigeria, and with no particular dog in the fight, and still abroad, my assessment that had led to my projections on the four major presidential candidates below are based on my over 35 years of personal knowledge on Nigerian geopolitical landscape, vis a vis our ethno-religious persuasion. It is also based on my knowledge or lack of it on each of the four presidential candidates. My projections are therefore on the following candidates: former Vice President Atiku Abubakar of PDP, former Lagos State Governor Bola Tinubu of APC, former Anambra State Governor Peter Obi of the Labor Party, and former Kano State Governor, Dr. Rabiu Musa Kwankwazo of NNPP.
Nota Bene: For those readers not particularly keen on Nigeria’s current electoral set of laws, a candidate who can win at least 25 percent in any state will be considered a winner of that state. However, if a candidate is so popularly accepted in a particular state, either because his party has the structure and has already won a statewide election, as the state governor being from his political party, such a candidate can be projected to score above 75% of the total votes, thus depriving other candidates of the 25% threshold. Otherwise, there may be multiple winners in such a state if other candidates are able to score 25% each. It is based on this assessment that each candidate is projected a partial winner with 25%, or an outright winner of above 75% of that state, or one with no chance to win.
Overall, there are 36 states in the country, and a candidate winning the presidency must win in two third of 36 states, or 24 states, and Abuja Federal Capital Territory.
Hence, on the February 25 Presidential Elections, below are my projections on the chances of each of the four major presidential candidates mentioned earlier:
NORTH EAST
1. Adamawa (PDP State):
Atiku andhis runnin mate, Okowa, are projected to score above 75% and dominate Atiku’s state of origin. No other candidate can get the 25% threshold.
2. Gombe (APC State):
Tinubu/Shettima ticket can be projected to win the APC State, but Atiku may also score above 25% to be a winner of the state.
3. Bauchi (PDP State):
Being a PDP controlled State, Atiku’s score can be projected to be higher than any other candidate. But with Shettima being a former governor of neighboring state, Borno Tinubu has a chance to score above 25% in the PDP state.
4. Borno (APC State):
Besides being an APC State, Senator Shettima being the former governor of this state, Asiwaju Tinubu’s ticket is projected to be the only winner of Borno State
5. Yobe (APC State):
Aside from Yobe being an APC state, it is also Borno’s neighboring state, and is thus solely projected for Tinubu/Shettima to win.
6. Taraba (PDP State):
Although a PDP state, Taraba is projected for both Atiku and Tinubu to win, though with the former scoring a little higher than the latter, Like in other 5 states of the zone, the other two candidates, Peter Obi, and Rabiu Kwankwazo have no chance in this North East state
NORTH WEST
1. Kano (an APC State):
This APC state is projected for both Tinubu and Kwankwaso to win, with Tinubu scoring higher votes than Kwankwazo. While the former Governor of Lagos, Tinubu, has a strong backing from the incumbent Governor of Kano, Alhaji Umar Ganduje, Dr. Rabiu Kwankwazo will gain from being a former governor of the same state, Kano. There is apparently no chance for either Atiku or Obi to get the required 25% in Kano
2. Katsina (APC state):
Like Kano, Tinubu and Kwankwazo are the only candidates that can be projected to win the state, with Tinubu being more favored in the APC state than his rivals. Katsina state cannot be projected for Atiku and Obi to each receive up to the 25% of the total votes.
3. Kaduna (APC):
Asiwaju Tinubu can be outright projected to win the state governed by his political advocate and friend, Governor Nasir El-Rufai. But Atiku of PDP can be also projected to score enough votes to reach the required 25% and be considered a winner of the state. Kwankwazo and Obi has no chance at all in the state.
4. Jigawa (APC):
Only Tinubu can be projected to win the APC state
5. Kebbi (APC):
Though Asiwaju Tinubu is so popular in this APC state, Alhaji Atiku can also be projected to at least score the required 25% in this APC state, though Tinubu may score higher than Atiku. But Kwankwazo has little chance in Kebbi, talkless of Obi’s chances in the North West State.
6. Sokoto (PDP):
Being a PDP state, the Seat of the Caliphate is projected for Atiku to win, but that may not exclude Asiwaju Ahmed Tinubu, who has made some headway in the state. Asiwaju Tinubu may get more than the 25% required but is projected to be a winner of the state. No chances for other candidates.
7. Zamfara (APC):
As in Sokoto, Zamfara State can be counted for Tinubu, but Atiku can be also projected to win, although an APC. No chances for other candidates to win in Zamfara.
NORTH CENTRAL
Abuja FCT:
Only the presidential tickets of Alhaji Atiku Abubakar and Asiwaju Tinubu can be projected to win the nation’s Capital, Abuja..
1. Benue (PDP):
Benue is a state with a PDP governor who is expected to give his part’s presidential candidate a widespread appeal in the state, and depriving other candidates a chance to win the required 25%. But that may not be the case. The PDP flag bearer, Atiku, has so far failed to win over the aggrieved members of the Integrity Group, including the Benue state governor, Samuel Ortom. The state governor has openly endorsed Peter Obi, the LP candidate. Though Atiku’s chances in the state can be boosted by the Benue-born National Chairman of PDP, who favored Atiku’s getting the ticket, Atiku can only be projected to barely get about the required 25%. Peter Obi is favored to win big in the state, depriving candidates like Tinubu and Kwankwazo.
2. Nasarawa (APC state):
The APC National Chairman, Sen. Abdullahi Adamu was a former governor of the state, and has a strong political cloud across the state. Though once rumored to prefer another candidate before the APC primary, the former senator seems to have come around to work for his party’s choice, and will help Asiwaju/Shettima ticket to be the sole winner of Nasarawa State, come February 25th.
3. Niger (APC):
Besides Niger being an APC state with its governor strongly for the party’s presidential candidate, Asiwaju’s generosity is known throughout the State of Niger when he made a large donation to the state fur a humanitarian relief course. The popularity of Asiwaju’s name in the state is enough for him to be projected as the only winner of the state
4. Kogi (APC):
Being an APC state. Kogi can easily be projected a win for Tinubu, but Atiku seems to have a chance to make the state a double winner count. Atiku’s chance may partly be because of the presence of the Atiku’s strong campaign structure, with the likes of Dino Malaye, a former PDP Senator. Atiku’s boost could also be attributed to the zig zag stance of the incumbent APC governor, Yahaya Bello, who unsuccessfully contested with Asiwaju in APC primary.
5. Kwara (APC):
Also an APC controlled state, Kwara is projected a big win for Tinubu, but due to Saraki factor, there will be enough room for Atiku to be considered a slight winner in the state. The former Nigerian Senate President, Bukola Saraki and his family are known for years for their political pedigree of having a strong hold on Kwara politics.
6. Plateau (APC):
In spite of being a predominantly Christian state, the APC state is projected to vote in large numbers for Tinubu’s Muslim-Muslim ticket, depriving the candidates with Christian-Muslim or Muslim-Christian tickets. The fact is that many Nigerians forget or ignore that Tinubu’s wife, Sen. Remi Tinubu, is not only a Christian, but a Pastor of a Redeem Church in Lagos. It is true that their children are Christians as well.
SOUTH-SOUTH
1. Akwa Ibom (PDP state):
Though a PDP state and projected for former VP Atiku, being a state with a large number of educated voters who have read about Governor Tinubu’s performance in Lagos, Asiwaju Tinubu can also be projected to score at least a quarter of the votes to be cast, thus making him also a winner with Atiku. Former Governor Peter Obi does not seem to be a competitor in this Southern state. Same can be said of former Kano Governor Rabiu Kwankwazo
2. Bayelsa (PDP):
With the presence of former President Goodluck Jonathan, the luck is on Atiku’s side, and he can be projected possibly as the sole winner of the oil rich Creek state The ex-president is still a staunch PDP member in the state.
3. Cross River (APC):
Like other APC states each with a winning governor, who is also a friend to both former Governors Tinubu and Shettima, Cross River can be projected for Tinubu. But Atiku, with his power of Naira for political ads, can not be ruled out, and can also manage to woo enough voters to make a meager win of 25% in the former PDP state of my friend, Donald Duke
4. Delta (PDP):
Delta State, being a PDP controlled state with Atiku’s running mate as its current governor, can be projected a win for Atiku. But the state can also give Asiwaju Tinubu a large number of votes, close to those of Atiku. This is because in addition to Asiwaju’s strong campaign structure in the state, the mother of his wife is a native of Warri in Delta state. Asiwaju’s mother-in-law speaks Itsekiri. a dialect in Yoruba group of dialects, like Owo dialect in Ondo state.
5. Edo (PDP):
Edo as VCs C PDP state can be projected for Atiku, just as Tinubu can be projected to win in the PDP state that was once controlled by APC, a lot credit to Adams Oshiomlole, the former governor of Edo state, and an ally of Asiwaju.
6. Rivers (PDP):
Though this is a PDP state with a governor who is still claiming to be a PDP member, it will be an herculean task for Atiku’s campaign to even score a quarter of the electoral votes in the state, no thanks to Governor Nyesom Wike who has just announced that he has directed many people in the state to vote for Asiwaju Tinubu. So, Tinubu can be favorably projected a big winner in Rivers, though Atiku may still be a winner based on the electoral laws. On the hand, Obi and Kwankwazo can be projected as having no chance to win in the state.
SOUTH EAST
1. Abia (PDP):
For sundry factors, the PDP state can be projected to have a multiple of winners, namely: Obi, Atiku and even Tinubu.
2. Anambara (APGA state):
Being a state governed for 8 years by Peter Obi, the state can be projected for Obi only. That is if the state voters will ignore the party flip flop of the state’s former Governor. Except for Tinubu, I don’t see the chances for any other candidate in APGA state.
3. Ebonyi (APC):
The APC state can be projected a win for Tinubu, though Obi can somehow be a winner of a quarter of the total votes in the state, thus giving him a count.
4. Enugu (PDP):
Being a PDP state, Atiku can be projected a possible winner, but still, Obi from neighboring state can even be a winner with a score of votes higher than Atiku
5. Imo (APC):
Though an APC state, Obi is most likely than Tinubu to score higher in the Ibo state, but depriving Atiku and Kwankwazo of enough votes to be considered winners
SUTH WEST
1. Ekiti (APC):
For obvious reasons, the Southwest state can overwhelmingly be projected only for Tinubu.
2. Ondo (APC):
Just like the neighboring state of Ekiti, Ondo can mainly be projected only for Tinubu
3. Ogun (APC):
As in Ondo, and Ekiti, Ogun state can be projected a state to be won only by Tinubu, regardless of Obi’s support by ex-President Obasanjo and Pa Adebanjo of Afenifere.
4. Osun (PDP):
Though recently a PDP won state, one only need to see the size of crowd at Oshogbo rally for Tinubu, to predict the potential result of the election on this February 25, in Osun state. Tinubu can therefore be projected a winner of Osun state, while the PDP candidate, Atiku, can be projected for a bare win in the new PDP state.
5. Oyo (PDP):
As in the case of Osun, Oyo, the PDP state, can be projected as a win for Tinubu and barely for Atiku. This is partly because the governor of Oyo state, Seyi Makinde, is on record as a member of the G-5, a rebellious group of PDP governors who remain opposed to Atiku’s presidential ticket. Besides, Tinubu’s campaign structure is strong in Oyo, as in other states across the nation.
6. Lagos (APC):
Lagos is of course the epicenter of Tinubu’s campaign strategy, his home base. In spite of the acclaimed Ibo population in Lagos State, Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu is expectedly projected to be the only winner.
Total number of states projected for::
Tinubu: 31, plus Abuja FCT
Atiku: 20 states plus Abuja FCT
Obi: 6 states
Kwankwaso: 2 states
Based on all of the above, the projected winner of Nigerian Presidential elections on February 25, will be Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu
Below is an Addedum To Why Tinubu will win:
ignoring the “Emi lo kan” rhetoric, the projected victory for Bola Tinubu should be expected due to a list of sundry reasons, including:
1. Tinubu is never in Buhari’s Government, Nor responsible for current Chaos
Though Asiwaju Tinubu is a former APC governor, he has never been a part of Buhari’s government, which is responsible for the current chaotic and pathetic situation affecting Nigerians nationwide. Most voters are mostly likely to remember Tinubu to be the first to raise the alarm and to condemn the timing of the policy. Hence, the voters are aware of the negative feelings generated for Buhari APC government but n may not use that against Tinubu/Shettima ticket. This is more so that Tinubu and APC governors have articulated the intent to reverse the policy affecting Nigerians.
2. Tinubu’s Outstanding Performance in Lagos is known by voters
By now, most Nigerian voters are fully aware of Asiwaju’s antecedents, especially his outstanding record of achievements as the Lagos governor for 8 years, and beyond. The economy of Lagos State has even been compared with some countries in Africa. As once reported by TheCable, the economy of Lagos as a state has been ranked higher than some African countries, as it ranks the 12th African Economy, ahead of the economy of the Democratic Republic of Congo which ranks 13th, and that of Cameroon ranking the 14th among all African countries. Asiwaju Tinubu has made Lagos State the pacesetter for other states in Nigeria to follow. Hence, the Lagos Economy built by Asiwaju Tinubu as a governor is not comparable to any other states in Nigeria. He has made the case across the nation that he intends to do the same for Nigeria.
3. Party-wise, the odds favor Asiwaju and Shettima nationwide
The fact that of the 36 states, 22 are controlled by APC Governors with their voting spread appeal, each APC governor having won a statewide election. Hence, Tinubu/Shettima ticket is more favored to score higher than any other ticket in those 22 states.
Nationwide, PDP has 1only 3 States controlled by 13 Governors, 5 of which may work against the PDP presidential candidate. Also, the fact that 14 of the 19 Northern states are under APC governors, with only 5 for PDP, is a big plus for Tinubu/Shettima ticket to win large in those 14 Northern states.
